traducido por Federico Dilla
Forex Market Analysis: Proceedings of the Fed again place the next rate hike in June
Screenshot 19.05.2016 at 15.42.34
Then our experts analyze the behavior of the currency market during the week. For more information, please consult the web www.bsmarkets.com. Also, you have at your disposal this document basics currency environment may also be of interest.
DEVELOPED
Euro-Dollar: during the week, the euro depreciated to 1.1200 levels. The best relative evolution of macroeconomic data in the US (Inflation and industrial production) vs Eurozone (GDP 1T'16) on one side and the minutes of the Fed left the door open for a rate hike in June by another, contributed to the overall improvement of USD. To this hawkish comments Lockhart and Williams who continue to defend 2 rate hikes this year despite the alert other members about the risks of Brexit joined. Thus the Fed Funds now pricing in a rise of 25 bp to dic'16 with a probability of 74% compared with 52% the previous week, and 32% to jun'16 compared to 2% the previous week. With a medium-term perspective, monetary policy divergence between the US and the Eurozone, as well as the risk from Brexit are factors that limit further appreciation of the Euro. Weekly Levels: Support 1.1133 / 1.081 / 1.0534; Resistance 1.1466 / 1.1615 / 1.1868. Technically the trend is Side.
Dollar-Yen: continued technical rebound at the junction (dollar appreciation) started in the minimum of 105 (level of 2014), especially after the publication of the minutes of the Fed Moreover, the preliminary data GDP. 1T'16 of Japan, which surprised on the upside, was offset again by statements from BoJ governor on the desirability of greater stability in the currency, but also acknowledged that it is difficult to get the finance ministry weaken the yen. Weekly Levels: Support 107.51 / 105.52 / 100.82; Resistance 111.94 / 114.47 / 117.57. Technically the trend is Side.
Euro-Pound: New revaluation of the pound. The key remains in the referendum (the latest polls continue to reflect a victory of stay in the EU by a narrow margin) while the macro data into the background: in fact the latest inflation fell more than expected, that would support further depreciation of the pound, although the effect would be transitory by Easter. Weekly Levels: Support 0.764 / 0.7518 / 0.7315; Resistance 0.7936 / 0.8127 / 0.8402. Technically, the long-term trend is Side.
Euro-Swiss Franc: During the week the Swiss Franc depreciates slightly remaining above the upper limit of the range set by the SNB intervention (1.10 / 1.08). In any case, in the current context SNB tolerance to a depreciation of the franc is higher than in case of appreciation.
EMERGING
Dollar-Real Brazil: The real has moved sideways in a narrow range with low volatility awaiting the end of the political situation clarified (first changes in economic policy Temer). The crossing did not reflect the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies and picked up the latest macroeconomic data (the index of economic activity accelerated its decline) or mixed performance in commodities. weekly levels: Supports: 3.4231 / 3.242 / 3.1107; Resistance: 3.725 / 3.8585 / 4.081. Technically the trend is Bullish.
Dollar-Mexican Peso: The peso depreciated during the week influenced mainly by the strengthening dollar (particularly after the publication of the minutes of the Fed) and without reflecting the positive performance of oil, which rose about +3.00 %. They contributed to some extent to the depreciation of the peso the worst macroeconomic data published in Mexico (industrial production). Weekly Levels: Support: 17.8355 / 17.0305 / 16,447; Resistance 18.6187 / 18.8036 / 18.9604. Technically the trend is Bullish.
Then our experts analyze the behavior of the currency market during the week. For more information, please consult the web www.bsmarkets.com. Also, you have at your disposal this document basics currency environment may also be of interest.
DEVELOPED
Euro-Dollar: during the week, the euro depreciated to 1.1200 levels. The best relative evolution of macroeconomic data in the US (Inflation and industrial production) vs Eurozone (GDP 1T'16) on one side and the minutes of the Fed left the door open for a rate hike in June by another, contributed to the overall improvement of USD. To this hawkish comments Lockhart and Williams who continue to defend 2 rate hikes this year despite the alert other members about the risks of Brexit joined. Thus the Fed Funds now pricing in a rise of 25 bp to dic'16 with a probability of 74% compared with 52% the previous week, and 32% to jun'16 compared to 2% the previous week. With a medium-term perspective, monetary policy divergence between the US and the Eurozone, as well as the risk from Brexit are factors that limit further appreciation of the Euro. Weekly Levels: Support 1.1133 / 1.081 / 1.0534; Resistance 1.1466 / 1.1615 / 1.1868. Technically the trend is Side.
Dollar-Yen: continued technical rebound at the junction (dollar appreciation) started in the minimum of 105 (level of 2014), especially after the publication of the minutes of the Fed Moreover, the preliminary data GDP. 1T'16 of Japan, which surprised on the upside, was offset again by statements from BoJ governor on the desirability of greater stability in the currency, but also acknowledged that it is difficult to get the finance ministry weaken the yen. Weekly Levels: Support 107.51 / 105.52 / 100.82; Resistance 111.94 / 114.47 / 117.57. Technically the trend is Side.
Euro-Pound: New revaluation of the pound. The key remains in the referendum (the latest polls continue to reflect a victory of stay in the EU by a narrow margin) while the macro data into the background: in fact the latest inflation fell more than expected, that would support further depreciation of the pound, although the effect would be transitory by Easter. Weekly Levels: Support 0.764 / 0.7518 / 0.7315; Resistance 0.7936 / 0.8127 / 0.8402. Technically, the long-term trend is Side.
Euro-Swiss Franc: During the week the Swiss Franc depreciates slightly remaining above the upper limit of the range set by the SNB intervention (1.10 / 1.08). In any case, in the current context SNB tolerance to a depreciation of the franc is higher than in case of appreciation.
EMERGING
Dollar-Real Brazil: The real has moved sideways in a narrow range with low volatility awaiting the end of the political situation clarified (first changes in economic policy Temer). The crossing did not reflect the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies and picked up the latest macroeconomic data (the index of economic activity accelerated its decline) or mixed performance in commodities. weekly levels: Supports: 3.4231 / 3.242 / 3.1107; Resistance: 3.725 / 3.8585 / 4.081. Technically the trend is Bullish.
Dollar-Mexican Peso: The peso depreciated during the week influenced mainly by the strengthening dollar (particularly after the publication of the minutes of the Fed) and without reflecting the positive performance of oil, which rose about +3.00 %. They contributed to some extent to the depreciation of the peso the worst macroeconomic data published in Mexico (industrial production). Weekly Levels: Support: 17.8355 / 17.0305 / 16,447; Resistance 18.6187 / 18.8036 / 18.9604. Technically the trend is Bullish.
